Vol. Iprediction markets edition

The Future Times

Section

World

84%certain · Kalshi
GREENLAND STAYS DANISH, TRUMP WALKS AWAY

GREENLAND STAYS DANISH, TRUMP WALKS AWAY

the four-year push to buy the Arctic island ends with no deal, no sale, no map redrawn

NEW YORK, January 22, 2029 — The United States failed to acquire Greenland by the end of Trump's term, an outcome traders had priced at 84 per cent. The great buyout ended as bluster.

Copenhagen never blinked. Every figure floated — $300 billion, $600 billion, nearly a trillion — drew single-digit odds on Kalshi, while the "no deal" bet held above eight in ten. The wires called it early and never looked back.

Greenland's 57,000 residents, courted for four years, remain firmly Danish. The Arctic base talk cooled, the map stayed the same, and the island's ice outlasted the ambition. Observers marked it as the offer nobody accepted.

Kalshi · 84% probabilityView market ↗

From the edition of Monday, July 20, 2026

59%certain · Polymarket
SPAIN CONQUERS THE 48-NATION WORLD CUP
Confirmed ✓resolved on Jul 20, 2026

SPAIN CONQUERS THE 48-NATION WORLD CUP

as La Roja beats a battling Argentina to lift the trophy on American soil

NEW JERSEY, July 20 — Spain beat Argentina Sunday to win the first 48-nation World Cup, exactly as the betting markets predicted at 59 percent. A hundred thousand fans packed the stadium. Spain kept its cool and ground down the defending champions. The final whistle blew. La Roja stood on top of the world.

The favorites delivered. Spain led the odds all tournament; Argentina slipped to underdog status defending its title. The expanded field of 48 teams sprawled across North America — a first, and a logistical monster. Fans reported chaos in the stands, banners in a dozen languages, and one very long, very hot summer.

Argentina's loss stings after winning Qatar four years ago. Its supporters went silent, then filed out into the New Jersey night. Spain adds a second star to the one it won in 2010. The party heads home across the Atlantic. Next time, the world comes for the crown.

Polymarket · 59% probabilityView market ↗

From the edition of Friday, July 17, 2026