The Future Times
Every headline in this newspaper is written before the facts, priced by the prediction markets. When the future finally arrives, we return and stamp the verdict — confirmed or wrong. This page is where we hold ourselves to account.
How to read this scoreboard
A probabilistic paper that never missed would be lying. Headlines stamped 70% SHOULD fail 3 times in 10 — the misses below are not shame, they are proof the numbers tell the truth.
So the measure that matters is not just the hit rate: it is CALIBRATION. Of the headlines we stamped ~80%, did ~80% happen? The band table compares promise with outcome — the closer, the more honest the stamp.
Every verdict links the original story, frozen in the archive with its print date: the prediction is public, dated and immutable. Nobody rewrites the past around here.
Calibration by band
| Stamp band | Headlines | Promised | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤49% | 1 | 14% | 0% |
| 50–64% | 3 | 59% | 67% |
| 65–79% | 1 | 66% | 0% |
| 80–94% | 3 | 89% | 33% |
| 95–100% | 3 | 98% | 100% |
Brier score: 0.243 — 0 = perfect clairvoyance · 0.25 = coin flip · lower is better
| Predicted for | Headline | Probability | Lead time | Source | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | IRAN STRIKES A GULF NEIGHBOUR | 99% | +0d | Polymarket | Confirmed ✓ resolved on Jul 19, 2026 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | FRANCE TAKES BRONZE, ENGLAND SETTLES FOR FOURTH | 66% | +0d | Manifold | Wrong ✗ resolved on Jul 19, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | SPAIN CONQUERS THE 48-NATION WORLD CUP | 59% | +3d | Polymarket | Confirmed ✓ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | MESSI CROWNED WORLD CUP GOLDEN BOOT KING | 58% | +3d | Polymarket | Wrong ✗ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | TRUMP CROWNS THE WORLD CUP FINAL | 98% | +3d | Polymarket | Confirmed ✓ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | COLDPLAY CONQUERS WORLD CUP HALFTIME STAGE | 97% | +2d | Polymarket | Confirmed ✓ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | MESSI TAKES THE GOLDEN BALL | 91% | +2d | Polymarket | Wrong ✗ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | SCHEFFLER SEIZES THE CLARET JUG | 14% | +1d | Polymarket | Wrong ✗ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | SPAIN WIN THE WORLD CUP | 59% | +0d | Polymarket | Confirmed ✓ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | MBAPPÉ SEIZES WORLD CUP GOLDEN BOOT | 93% | +1d | Polymarket | Confirmed ✓ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | YAMAL CROWNED WORLD CUP'S BEST YOUNG STAR | 84% | +0d | Manifold | Wrong ✗ resolved on Jul 20, 2026 |