Brazil · From the edition of Jul 17, 2026
✳ Dated SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2026 ✳
LULA STORMS INTO RUNOFF ONCE MORE
as the Bolsonaro dynasty flounders for the coveted second berth in a fractured field
BRASÍLIA, Oct. 4 — Lula did it again. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has locked up a spot in Brazil's presidential runoff. Betting markets called it at 95 per cent before the count even started. The veteran president advanced like a man who's outlived more political obituaries than anyone in the country's history.
Brazil knows this movie. Lula was jailed, then freed. He won the Planalto twice, then clawed it back in a razor-thin 2022 finish. Now he cruises toward another decisive vote while rivals fight for the right to lose to him. Case in point: the Bolsonaro clan. Its standard-bearer, Michelle Bolsonaro, drew just 2 per cent in the markets — a brutal number for a family that once commanded millions.
The right is a mess. It's hunting for a leader as the patriarch's shadow stretches over a shaky succession. The second slot is a knife fight among minor names, and the runoff is the real test. For now, the President savors round one. The next few weeks decide whether the old warhorse wins a final term — or whether restless voters demand one more surprise.
Source: Polymarket · 95% probability — View market ↗