War · From the edition of Jul 17, 2026
✳ Dated THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2026 ✳
KOSTYANTYNIVKA FALLS TO RUSSIAN GUNS
as the Kremlin's grinding Donbas offensive swallows another storied Ukrainian bastion before the year's close
KOSTYANTYNIVKA, Dec. 31 — Russia took this Donbas stronghold on Tuesday. Betting markets had priced the fall at 92 percent. The city guarded the northern approaches to Donetsk's fortress belt. Its defenders pulled out or were overwhelmed. The siege is over.
Polymarket traders tracked the town's collapse for nearly a year. The odds moved from three-in-ten in summer to better than nine-in-ten by December. Kostyantynivka was the linchpin of the "fortress belt" — the chain of industrial strongholds, including Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, that Kyiv has held since the Donbas war began in 2014. Its capture opens the road north Moscow has wanted for years.
Analysts expect the next blows to hit those two anchor cities. Traders are already betting on darker outcomes. Can Ukraine's battered forces hold before the spring thaw? That's the open question. For now, the guns are quiet over another ruin.
Source: Polymarket · 92% probability — View market ↗