Vol. I2026-07-17prediction markets edition

The Future Times

Technology · From the edition of Jul 17, 2026

91%certain · Polymarket

STARSHIP ROARS ALOFT ON THIRTEENTH TRIAL

the rocket cleared the Texas dawn — its booster headed for a fiery end over the Gulf

STARSHIP ROARS ALOFT ON THIRTEENTH TRIAL
SpaceX launches Starship Flight Test 13 by July 31says the market

BOCA CHICA, July 31 — SpaceX launched its thirteenth Starship on Thursday. Traders had put the odds at 91 percent, and the wires had already called it. The silver giant climbed on a column of flame off the Gulf coast, the blast rattling the shoreline.

But bettors gave the Super Heavy booster a 79.5 percent chance of blowing up. That's the deal now: every shot at the Moon and Mars comes with spectacular wreckage. Spectators lined the dunes, binoculars up, half in awe, half hoping for a fireball. Ordinary rockets are museum pieces.

The upper stage arced toward a splashdown in the sea, rated a coin-flippy 70 percent. Nail the water landing and Musk's reusable rocket dream moves one rung higher. Miss it, and engineers pick through the debris — same as always. For now, the world exhales and waits for the next try.

Source: Polymarket · 91% probabilityView market ↗