Science · From the edition of Jul 18, 2026
✳ Dated SATURDAY, JANUARY 1, 2028 ✳
A LAB PLANTS THE AGI FLAG
A company declares it has cracked artificial general intelligence, ending a race the market called a coin flip
NEW YORK, Dec. 31 — A company has declared it built artificial general intelligence before 2028, an outcome Kalshi traders priced at exactly 50 per cent. The claim lands on the last day the clock allowed.
The market split clean down the middle for months, the contract hugging 50 cents as labs traded hints and denials. Longer bets ran hotter: traders put the odds of AGI by 2031 near 78 per cent.
Now the flag is planted, and the fight moves to who gets to judge it. Observers warn a press release is not a verdict. The wires call it the biggest announcement in tech — and the hardest to prove.
Source: Kalshi · 50% probability — View market ↗