Vol. I2026-07-18prediction markets edition

The Future Times

Science · From the edition of Jul 18, 2026

60%certain · Kalshi

BLUE ORIGIN BEATS MUSK TO THE MOON

Bezos's uncrewed Blue Moon lander settles onto lunar dust while Starship stays grounded

BLUE ORIGIN BEATS MUSK TO THE MOON
Blue Origin lands on the Moon before SpaceX's Starship.says the market

NEW YORK, Dec. 31 — Blue Origin's Blue Moon MK1 touched down on the Moon this week, beating an uncrewed Starship to the surface — an outcome traders had priced at 60 per cent. Bezos got there first.

The unmanned lander made a soft descent as SpaceX's giant still worked through test flights. On Kalshi, the market that tracked the race drew nearly $90,000 in wagers before it closed.

Musk long owned the spotlight; this time the wires favored the quieter shop. Observers called it the first real crack in the two-man space race — and a long, patient bet finally paid.

Source: Kalshi · 60% probabilityView market ↗