Vol. I2026-07-18prediction markets edition

The Future Times

Technology · From the edition of Jul 18, 2026

91%certain · Polymarket

ANTHROPIC SHIPS NEW OPUS BEFORE MONTH ENDS

the frontier lab beats its own July deadline, holding the crown it has worn all year

ANTHROPIC SHIPS NEW OPUS BEFORE MONTH ENDS
Anthropic ships the next Claude Opus model by July 31.says the market

NEW YORK, July 31 — Anthropic pushed the next Claude Opus into the world before the month ran out — an outcome traders had priced at 91 per cent. The release lands exactly where the odds said it would.

The market opened the question weeks ago and never really doubted it. Bets on a July 31 arrival climbed past 90 cents; the longer shots for August and December barely moved. Volume topped $39,000 in a single day.

A fresh Opus keeps Anthropic's flagship line at the front of a crowded race. Observers read the timing as a message: the lab intends to stay first, and the wires agree it just did.

Source: Polymarket · 91% probabilityView market ↗