Brazil · From the edition of Jul 18, 2026
✳ Dated MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2026 ✳
92%certain · Polymarket
PAES SEIZES RIO STATEHOUSE IN A WALK
The mayor trades City Hall for the governor's chair, and the odds never blinked
RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct. 5 — Eduardo Paes carried the governor's race Sunday night, an outcome traders had priced at 92 per cent. The mayor barely broke stride crossing from City Hall to the statehouse.
Paes ran the whole race as the near-lock. Prediction markets never wavered, holding him above 90 per cent through the campaign. Rivals fought for second.
For a city that thrives on the long shot, this was the safe bet. Now Paes swaps municipal potholes for a state budget, and the wires already call the transition a formality.
Source: Polymarket · 92% probability — View market ↗