War · From the edition of Jul 19, 2026
✳ Dated FRIDAY, JULY 31, 2026 ✳
63%certain · Polymarket
ISRAEL-IRAN TRUCE SURVIVES THE MONTH
an uneasy ceasefire between Jerusalem and Tehran holds into August, with traders still watching the exits
JERUSALEM, July 31 — The ceasefire between Israel and Iran reached month's end unbroken — an outcome traders priced at 63 per cent. No missiles crossed the line; only rhetoric did.
The quiet was priced, not promised. Traders held the truce at 63 per cent as the month closed, and every extra day carried a discount.
Neither side declared peace. Jerusalem kept its jets fueled, Tehran kept its threats warm, and the quiet held less by trust than by exhaustion. The truce survived July; nobody bet it would last.
Source: Polymarket · 63% probability — View market ↗