Vol. I2026-07-20prediction markets edition

The Future Times

Brazil · From the edition of Jul 20, 2026

88%certain · Polymarket

PL LOCKS DOWN BRAZIL'S SENATE

Bolsonaro's Liberals keep the biggest bloc in the upper house as the presidential race burns on

BRASÍLIA, Oct. 4 — The Partido Liberal held the most seats in Brazil's Senate on Sunday, an outcome traders had priced at 88 per cent. The right did not just survive the vote — it dug in.

The party built by Jair Bolsonaro now anchors the upper house, the chamber that ratifies judges, weighs impeachments and can stall any president's agenda. Whoever wins the palace inherits a Senate the right controls.

Observers watched the odds barely flicker for weeks. The presidential contest still rages; the Senate math, for now, is settled — and it favors the opposition.

Source: Polymarket · 88% probabilityView market ↗