Economy · From the edition of Jul 19, 2026
✳ Dated THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2026 ✳
POWELL DOESN'T BLINK: NO CUTS ALL YEAR
as the Fed ends 2026 exactly where it began, rate unchanged through twelve straight meetings
NEW YORK, July 20 — The Federal Reserve closed the books on 2026 without touching rates, an outcome traders priced at 85 per cent. Twelve months, zero cuts, one hawkish hold.
The bet crowded early and never loosened. On Polymarket, "no cuts" sat near 85 cents while every dovish scenario withered; the one-cut camp never found buyers. Powell sat on his hands, and the wires stopped guessing.
The ripple was real. Borrowers who penciled in cheaper money got none. Mortgages stayed heavy, bond desks recalibrated, and the year's lesson landed dry: this Fed talks patience and means it.
Source: Polymarket · 85% probability — View market ↗